I was advising someone on a new business opportunity.

This person did his MBA in the US and now works in the industry. He has been at it for the past several years.

He zeroed in on MBA consulting as the business he wants to start with his wife.

When we first spoke about the opportunity it looked tailor-made for him. 

He has lived this life and has experience of getting interviews and admits with high conversion rates. He has the knack of helping people and getting them results. Over the years he has helped many people get into the MBA programs of their choice in the US.

I thought about it and I asked him to rethink it because it takes a ton of energy to swim against the current.

I told him it is not the right idea, because the market he wants to get into won’t be hot for the foreseeable future. So he’ll have to spend a lot more time, energy, and money to make it work than if it had momentum.

You want support from the market to make something work well. For example, despite the right intent and a lot of effort the market and timing are not right for F&B, hospitality, and aviation. For aviation and related businesses, experts predict that only in 2024 things in aviation will get back to normal (like pre-pandemic normal).

Those who are in those industries don’t have a choice. But someone who is starting now has that choice. They know where the market is hot and where it is not. Like online retail of all kinds, is hot right now. Like really hot. Here is one data point – a chart that independent analyst Benedict Evans made showing the growth of e-commerce in the US as a percentage of total retail sales.

Want to look closer home?

Here is what happened with BookMyShow.

Anyway, starting and growing a business is at least a 5 years journey, so you want to go with something that has momentum and where you have a skill and interest overlap.

I know anyone who is ambitious, enterprising and wants to start now. But it is worth it, to be mindful, and dig deep to find the right opportunity, and then commit 18 months first after validating the idea by getting 5-10 paying customers.

It’s ok if this research and validation take a month or two, because it is a short time, compared to 18 months/5 years.